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The Total Value of China's Monthly Imports and Exports Increasing for the 18th Consecutive Month

2021-12-30 9:58:25

The data released by the General Administration of Customs on December 7^th shows that China's total imports and exports in the first 11 months of this year reached CNY 35.39 trillion, up 22% year-on-year and 24% over the same period in 2019. In dollar terms, China's total imports and exports in the first 11 months were USD 5.47 trillion, an increase of 31.3% year-on-year and 31.9% over the same period in 2019.

China's monthly import and export value has been increasing for the 18^th consecutive month since June last year.

As for the month of November, China’s total imports and exports in dollar terms stood at USD 579.34 billion, growing 26.1% year-on-year, 12.2% month-on-month, and 42.8% over the same period in 2019. The exports in November amounted to USD 325.53 billion, rising 22% year-on-year, 8.4% month-on-month, and 47% over the same period in 2019.

“The imports and exports continued to grow rapidly in November,” said Tao Jin, Deputy Director of the Macroeconomic Research Center at the Suning Institute of Finance, in an interview with Securities Daily. He said that the rapid export growth in November came from the factors that support exports in the earlier stage and the decrease of disturbing factors.  

Gao Ruidong, Managing Director and Chief Macro-economist of Everbright Securities Co., Ltd., told Securities Daily that the exports of key products in November were driven by the Christmas consumption peak season, and the exports of toys and LCDs saw great jump in monthly growth rate; and at the same time, the growth rate of industrial exports (steel, aluminum and plastic products) was also picking up slightly, driven by the expansion in demands during the global economic recovery. He pointed out that as labor force was returning to the market following the cessation of unemployment subsidies in Europe and the United States, the growth rate of the exports related to home-bound economy such as furniture and lamps continued to drop from a high level in September.

The data shows that the imports in November totaled USD 253.81 billion, rising by 31.7% year-on-year, 17.6% month-on-month, and 37.7% from the same period in 2019.

Wang Qing, Chief Macroeconomy Analyst of Golden Credit Rating International Co., Ltd., told Securities Daily that the factor of price contributed greatly to the sharper-than-expected rebound in the growth rate of import value in November, and at the same time, the volume of major imports reported faster growth rate than the last month, which raised the total import value in November. Such increase was a result of the resumption of domestic industrial production and the follow-up increasing demands for raw materials and other commodities.

In Tao Jin’s view, the higher-than-expected import value in November was mainly due to the increase in both import volume and price.

“Since the beginning of this year, imports performed well driven by strong export momentum. The PMI in manufacturing industry in November rebounded more than expected. As the constraints on supply were relaxed, there was a significant rebound in the demand side of manufacturing industry,” said Gao Ruidong.

The following import and export performance is a major concern of the industry. Wang Qing believed that China’s export value may maintain the momentum in December, considering the substitution effect in exports under overseas pandemic outbreak and the volume and price structure of China’s exports.

Gao Ruidong predicted that the export growth rate will peak at a high level in the fourth quarter of this year and begin to slow down from the first quarter of next year, but at a gradual pace. This shows that the export trade in China remains resilient.

Tao Jin said that as for imports, as the recovery of domestic industrial production will sustain in a short term, the demands for raw materials will continue to increase. If the consumption recovers at a faster speed, it will help maintain the stability of imports to China.

“It is expected that there is limited room for further increase in import growth . The fall in both commodity prices and year-on-year growth rate in November will influence the price of imports, while the import value in the same period of last year is high. Therefore, the year-on-year growth rate of import value is expected to fall back in December,” Wang Qing said. (Reporter Hou Jiening; trainee reporter Yang Jie)

(Source: CCPIT / Securities Daily)